Trump Foreign Policy 2.0 in an Unstable World

Former President Donald Trump has been castigated relentlessly by the mainstream media as a warmonger despite his record — as he likes to point out — of “no wars for four years.” But President-elect Trump will inherit a vastly different world in 2025 — a world rocked by war and global tensions. How will he respond? 

As the MAGA base splinters into opposing coalitions, Trump’s exact position on the wars in Ukraine and Israel remains shrouded. Will he align with Tucker Carlson, Vice President-elect JD Vance, and an increasingly war-weary Republican electorate pushing for isolationism? Or will he stand by the more Reaganite, interventionist approach he embraced during his first term?

Here, we search for hints from Trump about the incoming administration’s foreign policy stance.

Ukraine

Dogged by unfounded allegations of benefitting from Russian interference in the 2016 election, Trump has repeatedly avowed he does not believe the Russian invasion of Ukraine would have occurred under his leadership, suggesting, contrary to what the media claims, that he will “be rough” on President Vladimir Putin.

“Our policy is very simple: Peace through strength,” the past and future commander-in-chief stated in an interview.

“I am not an isolationist…. Russia and Putin never would have attacked Ukraine, ever, when I was there.”

“The reason he wouldn’t have attacked is because of me,” Trump alleged. “There’s zero chance that he would have attacked. Ukraine, today, [if I had been president], would be fully intact, the cities wouldn’t be bombed, and you would have had two million or three million more people living, right now, a very nice life.”

After the election, Trump tapped “General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia.” Earlier this year, Kellogg penned a policy paper for the America First Policy Institute, proffering useful insights into how the administration may respond to the conflict.

“Advocates of aggressive U.S. support, including some who call for direct U.S. military involvement, view the war as a significant threat to American, European, and international security,” he wrote. “They claim that without robust and limitless American military aid to Ukraine, Russia will move after conquering Ukraine to rebuild the former Soviet Union and invade other countries, including NATO members. Some of these advocates claim that a Russian victory in Ukraine would undermine democracy and security in other areas of the world and could encourage China to invade Taiwan. Those who hold this view, especially President Biden, have strongly criticized as pro-Russia, pro-Putin, anti-democracy, and isolationist anyone who has opposed or even expressed skepticism about American military aid to Ukraine.”

His paper, tinged by the Right’s growing war fatigue, mostly blames the Biden Administration for the conflict. However, he also suggests that the U.S. should “seek a cease-fire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict,” luring Putin to join the peace talks by offering “to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period.” 

Although this position is far from ideal for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said he believes the war “will end faster with the policy of this team that will now lead the White House.”

“We must do everything to ensure that the war ends next year through diplomatic means,” he urged.

Israel

The proud architect of the Abraham Accords issued a grim warning against the Islamic terrorist group Hamas on Monday, demanding that they release the hostages they captured on October 7, 2023.

“Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked the U.S. leader for his “very decisive statement that clarifies that there is one party responsible for this situation, and that is Hamas.”

Bezalel Smotrich, the country’s Finance Minister, praised Trump for “increasing the pressure and the costs for Hamas and its supporters.”

“How refreshing,” he said, “it is to hear clear and morally sound statements that do not create a false equivalence or call for addressing ‘both side.’”

In addition to freeing the hostages held in Gaza, Trump has promised to end the war between Israel and Iran’s various proxies. Moreover, he has signaled his commitment to preventing the radical Islamic state from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Before November’s election, Iranian leaders threatened to arm the country with “whatever it needs to achieve victory,” seemingly including a nuclear weapon. However, after Trump won reelection, “Iran realized… it would have to reassess its strategy. In particular, when Trump’s high-level appointments were announced, the regime recalculated its moves out of fear that any provocation could turn the incoming president into a more dangerous adversary and could give Israel the green light to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.” Whereas Biden frequently restricted Netanyahu, Trump, who worked well with the prime minister during his first term, appears more willing to let the Israelis end the war with Hamas as they see fit.