Election Day: Seven Scenarios

Call it the calm before the storm. Only it doesn’t feel very tranquil. With less than one week before Election Day, it can feel like the country has hit peak crazy — and it’s only likely to get worse. No doubt, a part of that insanity arises from the nerve-wracking uncertainty of not knowing what November 5 holds. Here, I analyze seven possible scenarios that could play out in the neck-to-neck race to 270 electoral votes between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Best Case Scenarios for Either Candidate

Scenario #1: Harris Replicates Biden’s Win

I’m not entirely convinced that Harris won’t replicate President Joe Biden’s 2020 win, clinching six of the seven swing states, minus North Carolina. Trump has never lost the Old North State, which the Harris campaign recently confessed was “slipping away.” Therefore, my prediction is that, even in the most likely best-case scenario for Harris, she loses North Carolina, walking away with Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and 303 electoral votes to Trump’s 235. Interestingly, she would win three fewer electoral votes than Biden (306) after the most recent federal census reshaped the electoral map.

#2: Trump Trounces

If Trump wins every state in which he currently leads (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada) plus the two in which he trails (Wisconsin and Michigan), the former president could reclaim the White House with 312 electoral votes, improving upon his 2016 score (304). Additionally, Trump allies have predicted that Virginia, which elected a Republican governor in 2021, may flip for Trump, boosting his score to 325. As neither Nevada nor Virginia has ever voted for Trump, and he trails in the latter by roughly six points, this best-case scenario seems extremely unlikely.

Most Realistic Paths to Victory for Either Candidate

#3: Trump Wins… Barely

Trump’s most realistic path to victory appears to involve Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Without these three, Harris could win the rest of the swing states and still fall two points short. I do not think Trump can win Arizona or Nevada; I’m ambivalent about the blue wall states (besides Pennsylvania). But with the Keystone, Old North, and Peach States in tow, he would have exactly 270.

4. Harris Wins… Barely

Sticking with my gut that Harris will win the Grand Canyon State, all she would need to cross 270 is Pennsylvania and Georgia. And although that is all she would need to win, if Pennsylvania and Georgia fall, it’s almost certain she would pick up one or two other swing states, too. Alternatively, she could lose everything else if she maintains the blue wall (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), which would bring her to 270.

What Ifs…

5. Can Trump Win Without Pennsylvania?

Can Trump win without the Old North State’s 19 electoral votes? Yes. He could pull it off with Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia.

6. What about Harris?

The vice president’s most likely path to victory without Pennsylvania necessitates Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia.

Although there are other combinations by which Harris or Trump could win without Pennsylvania, these, to me, seem the most likely.

7. A Tie??

A tie between Harris and Trump is highly unlikely. However, with the closest presidential polls in at least 50 years, anything could happen. In the case of the first tie in the electoral college since the 1800 race between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, Article II of the U.S. Constitution dictates that “the House of Representatives shall immediately [choose] by Ballot one of [the two tied candidates] for President.”

The 12th Amendment further clarifies: “The person having the greatest number of [electoral] votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”

Of course, it’s improbable it would ever come to that. But then again, all bets are off. In the end, no one really knows what will happen on November 5, 2024 — only that it will be a historic night. Regardless of what happens, though, it’s vital that we, the voters, keep our wits about us and determine to march forward into a brighter, more sane future. In the meantime, we can only wait, pray, and vote.