Midweek Mood Check: Presidential Election Woes

According to Mark Meckler, Americans are wrestling with how to pay the bills and how to vote in the upcoming election without putting two and two together.

“While certainly not the only factor, the economy is the most important factor in how most cast their votes,” the president of Convention of States pointed out. “Right now, a large majority say things aren’t going well for them. The big question is, will they connect that pain to [Vice President Kamala] Harris? They should, but how people vote is often more emotional than logical.”

If the Midweek Mood Check, which Convention of States launched last November, has taught us anything, it's that Americans are deeply discouraged. Well-founded complaints about the economy have been a recurring theme. We may have put COVID-19 behind us, but the much-talked-about post-pandemic “return to normalcy” failed to materialize.

According to our latest data from the Napolitan Institute, just 23% of voters say their personal finances are improving. Historically, this is the most influential factor in how people will vote. By a 57% to 38% margin, voters say that they are not better off than they were four years ago, and by a 68% to 24% margin, they say that their income has been falling behind rather than keeping up with inflation.

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One might assume this does not bode well for the current administration.

Nevertheless, 50% of voters, regardless of how they personally plan to vote, believe that Kamala Harris, the sitting vice president, will win in November. Only 39% predict that former President Donald Trump will win. The remaining 11% are split between other candidates and unsure voters.

Although Trump has been falling in this particular poll since Harris entered the race over the summer, Meckler cautioned that “Voters on both sides are irrationally optimistic. This kind of optimism can lead to a lack of commitment and enthusiasm for the necessary hard work of getting out the vote. No one should take anything for granted. This is anybody’s race, and the difference is going to be at the margins.”

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