The past two weeks have been a whirlwind of turmoil in American politics. Especially in an election year, pundits and lawmakers seek to understand how voters feel about these issues. At Convention of States, we provide a periodic “Midweek Mood Check,” the pulse of the American people.
Sadly, the latest polling confirms what we already knew: America is in a dark place, and its citizens are fearful about the future.
The recent assassination attempt against Donald Trump should have made us realize that we must avoid a future marked by political violence at all costs. As I wrote, “Post the attempt on Trump’s life, America stands at a critical crossroads. Either we will allow the horrors of that fateful day to open our eyes to the dangers of flirting with political violence, or else it will further numb us to the worrying trend.”
Unfortunately, the data indicate that Americans’ fear of political violence increased after the shooting. Polling conducted by RMG Research, Inc., before President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on Sunday, revealed that over half of voters believed it was “likely” conservatives would resort to violence if Biden clinched a second term. This concern likely extends to a potential Kamala Harris presidency as well. In a similar vein, 43% of respondents feared that progressives might resort to violence if Trump won.
Such a response is, of course, unacceptable. As Rasmussen urged, “Following the violent acts of last Saturday, it’s time for both the Republican and Democratic parties and their candidates to take a stand against political violence and reintroduce civility into our political processes.” Nevertheless, with tensions high and hopelessness rampant, we should not necessarily be surprised if geniality and peacefulness continue to deteriorate.
One factor contributing to Americans’ overall frustration is the issue of the economy, which “experts” insist emphatically is improving.
For instance, “Rarely has Washington stumbled on an issue more confounding than President Biden's low approval ratings,” one writer claimed. “Among those traveling the corridors of power, you’d sooner see a confident assessment of Jimmy Hoffa’s whereabouts than a clear explanation for the public's dissatisfaction. The economy appears to be humming. The stock market is hitting record highs. The unemployment rate is near an all-time low. Wages are rising faster than inflation. And inflation has finally cooled.”
In other words…the American people don’t know what they’re talking about!
Despite these chipper claims about a lively economy from the media, the public’s experience suggests a starkly different reality. According to Rasmussen, only 25% of voters say their finances are improving. Nearly 40% say they are worsening.
Understandably, voters have had enough of the president and media telling them that, despite a mountain of empirical evidence to the contrary, the American economy is, as the White House put it, “robust.” Every visit to the gas pump or grocery store proves that narrative contemptibly wrong.
All of this leads to the one question on everyone’s mind: who will win the 2024 presidential election?
While we await more data on Kamala Harris’s prospects, it’s notable that public perception of Donald Trump’s chances has shifted. Following the attempted assassination, the percentage of voters who believe Trump will win the election has increased by 5%.
Ultimately, however, the fate of this nation will be decided by factors so much bigger than just one election. It will largely be determined by how the people respond.
In the face of an uncertain future, you and I — the American people — must resolve once and for all that political violence, civil war, and bloodshed are never acceptable responses to political disputes. Never.
At the end of the day, We, the People, as self-governing citizens, decide what kind of nation we live in, whether one of peace and prosperity or enmity and decline. At this critical crossroads, may we choose well.
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Midweek Mood Check: Fear of Violence Rises
Published in Blog on July 25, 2024 by Jakob Fay
