Midweek Mood Check: Electoral Mood Swing

In less than one month, former President Donald Trump was shot and nearly killed, announced his running mate — Ohio Senator J.D. Vance — and obtained a major victory in his classified documents case in Florida. Also, in that time, President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Kamala Harris replaced him on the ticket, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz rode his viral “Republicans are weird” talking point to national prominence. Additionally, the feds reportedly unraveled an Iranian plot to kill Trump, posing as hired gunmen to nab the would-be terrorist (strangely, the day before Trump was wounded in an unrelated shooting), and arrested a 66-year-old man who made over 4,000 threats against Harris. To top it all off, a sitting congressperson suggested that Congress may have to “block” Trump from office if he wins reelection, and Harris, according to one poll, skyrocketed 23 points amongst likely independent voters. That, of course, is the cliff notes version of the past 31 days.

With so much uncertainty, it’s understandable that many Americans are unsure of where they stand politically. This is evident in recent polling, which has demonstrated significant fluctuations over the past four weeks.

According to Scott Rasmussen, whose data we rely on for our Midweek Mood Check, Rasmussen Reports’ first polling between Trump and Biden’s vice president showed Harris trailing by one point. One week later (August 5), she had established a five-point lead over Trump. Specifically, she enjoys momentum over the former president amongst young voters and black Americans.

“Among voters under 35,” Rasmussen reports, “Harris leads Trump by 11 while Democrats have only a two-point edge on the Generic Ballot.” Moreover, “Generic Republicans pick up 19% of the black vote. However, Trump gets just 12% against Harris.” In other words, Trump underperforms against Harris compared to other nonspecific Republican-versus-Democrat races. 

However, Rasmussen also points out that many voters are still unfamiliar with Harris’ policies, many of which are deeply unpopular. For example, just 25% of voters favor providing illegal aliens with Medicare, while 84% believe that illegal immigration is bad for the nation, putting the vast majority of voters at odds with her record as the former border czar. Similarly, 69% of prospective Harris voters are unaware of her stance on men competing in women’s sports, which only 14% of Americans support.

Rasmussen suggests that the Harris-Walz ticket is, at the moment, benefiting from a honeymoon period, but notes that enthusiasm could wane as Americans become more familiar with her policies.

That does not mean everything is looking up for Trump, policy-wise, though. In fact, just 36% of voters expressed a favorable opinion of MAGA, whereas Black Lives Matter enjoyed a more positive response, with 53% of voters expressing support.

As the data clearly illustrates, America languishes in a state of deep-seated division and decline. Party leaders on both sides of the aisle routinely fail to offer the American people what they want, exacerbating our growing disunity and discontent.

Fortunately, at Convention of States, the nationwide grassroots movement seeking to convene the first-ever Article V convention, we know we do not have to wait for federal politicians to fix our problems (hint: they won’t!). The American Founding Fathers designed a federalist system of checks and balances, crowning “We the People” at the top of the totem pole, for precisely that reason — so that even if the federal government became corrupt and tyrannical, the American people would still possess the means for redressing their government.

Regardless of who wins in November, we still have that option. Through Article V of the United States Constitution, we can decentralize power from Washington, returning it to Middle America, where it belongs.

Don’t let the tumult and the frenzy of the 2024 election destroy your country. Sign the Convention of States petition below to stand up for the voice of the American people today.