The latest about the neck-to-neck race between Harris and Trump

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked 25 days before the presidential election, as both campaigns target undecided voters and urge their bases to get out and vote. In the race to 270 electoral college votes, attention now turns to the seven battleground states that could decide the fate of the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

1. Arizona

Arizona, which voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016, dangles its 11 electoral votes before the former president, who currently enjoys a slight lead over Harris (48.1% to 46.8%). The Grand Canyon State rejected two Trump-endorsed MAGA candidates (Kari Lake for governor and Blake Masters for Senate) in 2022, leading some to question whether the G.O.P. kingmaker can pull off his first win in the state in eight years.

As early voting kicked off this week, both candidates’ running mates, Senator J.D. Vance from Ohio and Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, hosted competing events in Phoenix and Tucson. Harris appeared in Phoenix on Thursday; Trump plans to visit the state on Sunday.

2. Georgia

In Georgia, where Trump leads Harris by about one point, the candidates wrestle for 16 electoral votes, all of which went to Biden in 2020 and Trump four years before that. Like Arizona, the Peach State voted against Trump’s preferred senate candidate, Herschel Walker, in the 2022 midterm election. Interestingly, however, the state also reelected its Republican governor, Brian Kemp, with whom Trump had frequently sparred.

One of the most diverse states in the country, Georgia was supposed to be an easier battleground for Harris than Biden, although she has not led in the polling since early September.

“A repeat win in Georgia this year, with Harris at the top of the ticket, could be vital to Democratic hopes of keeping control of the White House,” Newsweek suggested.

3. Michigan

Michigan offered its 15 electors to Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016. Harris is now positioned as the frontrunner in the Great Lakes State with a narrow one-point advantage over Trump. Her slight edge over the former president peaked in early August with a 3.4-point advantage, although it has been declining ever since.

Harris seeks to replicate Biden’s victory in the state, a vital Democrat stronghold, by targeting Wayne County, which includes Detroit, and the state’s sizeable Arab American population. Speaking in Detroit this week, Vance made the Trump campaign’s case for why Muslim Americans should vote for the former president instead: “Obviously, Arab Americans often have different views than Jewish Americans on what’s going on in Israel,” he said. “But I think both Jewish Americans and Arab Americans recognize that what’s in the best interest of Israel and Palestine is peace. And Donald J. Trump was the president of peace.”

Amazingly, a new poll from the Arab American Institute shows that Trump may have picked up a slight lead over Harris amongst this must-win demographic.

4. Nevada

Trump has never won the Silver State. And yet, he may have a shot this time around. In a margin-of-error race for the state’s six electoral votes, he currently trails Harris by less than one point.

Speaking at a raucous rally in Las Vegas in September, the vice president hammered her opponent for his dark tone and views on abortion. “Nevada, ours is a fight for the future, and it is a fight for freedom — like the fundamental freedom of a woman to be able to make decisions about her own body and not have her government tell her what to do,” she addressed the crowd. “We remember how we got here: Donald Trump hand-selected three members of the United States Supreme Court … to overturn the protections of Roe v. Wade,” she continued, adding that “one in three women in America live in a state with a Trump abortion ban.”

According to New York Times polling from August, most Nevadans prefer Harris over Trump on the issue of abortion (58% over 34%). However, most prefer Trump over Harris on the economy (58% over 39%), which they rank as the single most important issue in the state.

5. North Carolina

In North Carolina, Trump holds a slim one-point lead over Harris after winning The Tar Heel State’s 16 electoral votes in 2016 and 2020. According to Forbes, “Harris could become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years” if she can shave down his narrow advantage. “There is really no way that Donald Trump can make it to the White House if Democrats win North Carolina,” claimed the Harris campaign, which boasts more than 230 paid staff members in the state.

6. Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is not only the state in which Trump was shot earlier this year; it also happens to be the most consequential swing state of the year. With 19 electoral votes on the line, the commonwealth could conceivably determine the entire race’s outcome.

Pundits and strategists have criticized Harris for not selecting Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, noting that he might have boosted her chances in the state. (Walz’s home state of Minnesota has voted reliably blue for decades). Nevertheless, the vice president currently enjoys a 0.6% advantage over Trump.

Both candidates have spent more money in the Keystone State than any other state, with Republicans spending more than in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona combined. “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump predicted. The same is likely true for Harris, too. 

7. Wisconsin

Wisconsin, like many of its fellow battleground states, voted for Trump in 2016 but swung towards the Democratic Party four years later. Earlier this year, Democrats experienced a boost of confidence after newly redrawn legislative district lines dismantled the G.O.P.’s longtime grasp on the state. However, Harris’s lead has gradually been declining since August, shrinking from 3.8 points to 0.6 by early October. Other polls even show Trump overtaking Harris with a modest lead. Much like the election itself, the Badger State remains a toss-up.

Who will walk home with the prize is now firmly in the hands of the American people.